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Abstract:
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The importance of the nuclear balance vis-a-vis our principal adversary has been the subject of intense but unresolved debate in the international security community since the Soviet Union acquired nuclear weapons almost seven decades ago. Perspectives on this question underlie national security policies regarding potential unilateral reductions in strategic nuclear forces, the imbalance of nonstrategic nuclear weapons in Europe, nuclear crisis management, missile defenses, nuclear proliferation, and cross-domain and extended deterrence. The overwhelming majority of past studies of the role of the nuclear balance in nuclear crisis evolution and outcome have been qualitative and have focused on the relative importance of the nuclear balance and national resolve. Some recent analyses have invoked statistical methods, however, these quantitative studies have generated intense controversy because of concerns with analytic rigor. We apply a multi-disciplinary approach that combines historical case study, international relations theory, and appropriate statistical analysis. This approach results in defensible findings on causal mechanisms that regulate nuclear crisis resolution.
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