What Demographic Analysis Tells Us About the Undercount of Children in the 2010 Census

• Activity Number: 649
• Type: Topic Contributed
• Date/Time: Thursday, August 2, 2012 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
• Sponsor: Social Statistics Section
• Author(s): William O'Hare*+
• Companies: U.S. Census Bureau

Abstract

Demographic Analysis (DA) has been used for more than fifty years to evaluation the accuracy of U.S. Decennial Census counts. Demographic Analysis, which relies heavily on data from birth and death certificates, is a particularly good method for evaluating the count of children (persons under age 18) in the Decennial Census. This paper uses DA to evaluate the count of children in the 2010 Decennial Census. DA is used to look at the total count of children as well as several demographic dimensions such as age, sex, as well as race(black and Non-black) and Hispanic Origin. Analysis reveals an estimated net undercount of children compared to an estimated net overcount of adults (age 18+) in the 2010 Decennial Census. Based on the middle series of the Demographic Analysis series, there was an estimated net overcount of 0.7% for adults but an estimated net undercount of 1.7% for children. Children under age 5 had the highest net undercount rates, while persons age 14 to 17 experienced an estimated net overcount. The estimated net undercount of male and female children was almost identical, but gender differences started to e