Computer and Statistical Models for Geophysical Hazards

• Activity Number: 638
• Type: Invited
• Date/Time: Thursday, August 2, 2012 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
• Sponsor: Section on Physical and Engineering Sciences
• Author(s): M.J. Bayarri*+
• Companies: Universitat de València
• Keywords: Computer Models ; Hazard maps ; GaSP emulators ; Bayesian Krigging ; Models for extremes ; Geophysical risks

Abstract

Because catastrophic events are fortunately rare, it is generally not appropriate to use purely statistical models for meaningful quantification of the risk of geophysical hazards. A promising approach uses computer models to simulate geophysical activity under extreme conditions, thus allowing for extrapolation past the range of the data. Our proposed approach uses a combination of a state-of- the-art computer model, models for extreme events, statistical models to take into account the numerous uncertainties present, and spatial models to interpolate the output of the complex computer model at untried inputs. Uncertainties are combined through a Bayesian analysis. The methodology is exemplified for catastrophic pyroclastic flows of the Soufriere Hills Volcano on the island of Montserrat.