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Monday, 08/02/2010
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Matern Cross-Covariance Functions for Multivariate Random Fields
Tilmann Gneiting, Heidelberg University; William Kleiber, University of Washington; Martin Schlather, University of Goettingen
8:35 AM
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Providing Actionable Information from Sample Monitoring Data for Special Subsamples
Elizabeth Ormson, NORC; Wei Zeng, NORC; Lin Liu, NORC; Christina Dorell, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases
10:05 AM
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Using Disease Surveillance Data to Forecast Disease Risk
Al Ozonoff, Boston University School of Public Health; Yorghos Tripodis, Boston University; John Brownstein, Children's Hospital Boston
10:35 AM
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Interaction Detection for Business Forecasting
Dan Steinberg, Salford Systems
11:50 AM
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Optimal Filtering of Jump Diffusions: Extracting Latent States from Asset Prices
Jonathan Stroud, The George Washington University; Michael Johannes, Columbia University; Nicholas Polson, The University of Chicago
2:05 PM
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Forecasting Long-Term Trends in Consumer Expenditures
David Swanson, Bureau of Labor Statistics
2:05 PM
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Forecasting and Summarizing Wildfire Hazard in California
Kevin Edward Nichols, University of California, Los Angeles
2:50 PM
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Tuesday, 08/03/2010
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Generalized Exponential Weighted Moving Average for Time Series Forecasting
Lu Wang, University of California, Davis
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Neural Networks for Time Series Prediction: Practical Implications of Theoretical Results
Melinda F. Thielbar, North Carolina State University; David A. Dickey, North Carolina State University
8:35 AM
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Limit Theory for Comparing Overfit Models Out-of-Sample
Gray Calhoun, Iowa State University
8:35 AM
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Forecasting Emergency Medical Service Call Arrival Rates
David S. Matteson, Cornell University; Mathew W. McLean , Cornell University; Dawn B. Woodard, Cornell University; Shane Henderson, Cornell University
8:35 AM
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Statistical Modeling and Inference with Uncertainty in Part of Historical Data
Jerry Shan, Hewlett-Packard
9:05 AM
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Measuring Output Gap Uncertainty
Shaun Vahey, ANU; James Mitchell, NIESR; Anthony Garratt, Birkbeck College
9:35 AM
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Applications and Implications of a Nested Dirichlet Model of Baseball Player Ability
Brad Null, AOL Research
11:55 AM
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Short-Term Inflation Projections for the Euro Area
Domenico Giannone, ECARES
2:05 PM
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Wednesday, 08/04/2010
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Forecasting Clinical Trial Enrollment: A Case Study
Zachary Skrivanek, Eli Lilly and Company
9:05 AM
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Seasonal Adjustment to Facilitate Forecasting: Empirical Results
William R. Bell, U.S. Census Bureau; Ekaterina Sotiris, U.S. Census Bureau
10:35 AM
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Forecasting Corporate Bankruptcy: International Evidence
Shaonan Tian, University of Cincinnati; Yan Yu, University of Cincinnati
10:35 AM
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Forecasting Fuzzy Time Series with Different Degrees of Membership by Neural Networks
Memmedaga Memmedli, Anadolu University; Ozer Ozdemir, Anadolu University
10:35 AM
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Empirical Evaluation of Methods for Predicting Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Canada
Michael Otterstatter, Public Health Agency of Canada; Lin Xie, Public Health Agency of Canada
10:35 AM
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What Does Realized Volatility Tell Us About Macroeconomic Fluctuations?
Zeynep Senyuz, University of New Hampshire; Marcelle Chauvet, University of California, Riverside; Emre Yoldas, Bentley University
10:50 AM
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Advancing Statistical Methodology for USDA Surveys and Their Analysis
Jianqiang (Jay) Wang, National Institute of Statistical Sciences ; Scott Holan, University of Missouri; Balgobin Nandram, Worcester Polytechnic Institute ; Criselda Toto, Worcester Polytechnic Institute; Wendy J. Barboza, National Agricultural Statistics Service; Edwin Anderson, National Agricultural Statistics Service
11:25 AM
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Probabilistic Wind Vector Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging
J. McLean Sloughter, Seattle University; Adrian E. Raftery, University of Washington; Tilmann Gneiting, Universitat Heidelberg
11:35 AM
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Online Forecasting and Prediction of Spacio-Temporal Processes with Dynamic Covariance Estimation
Dave Zes, University of California, Los Angeles
11:50 AM
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Bayesian Mixtures of Autoregressive Models
Ori Rosn, The University of Texas at El Paso; Sally Wood, Melbourne Business School; Robert Kohn, University of New South Wales
12:05 PM
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