The Value of Personalized, Predictive Risk-Assessment Tools for the Prevention of Chronic Diseases

• Activity Number: 445
• Type: Invited
• Date/Time: Wednesday, August 4, 2010 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
• Sponsor: Section on Statistical Consulting
• Author(s): Edward J. Moler*+ and Louis P. Garrison and Janice Kolberg and Harald Rinde and Sean D. Sullivan
• Companies: Tethys Bioscience, Inc. and University of Washington and Tethys Bioscience, Inc. and BioBridge Strategies Switzerland and University of Washington
• Keywords: personalized medicine ; chronic disease ; prevention ; diagnostics ; risk assessment ; diabetes

Abstract

The burden of type 2 diabetes (T2DM) on health care resources is large and increasing. New risk-assessment tools provide the opportunity to implement effective diabetes prevention programs. A study will be presented comparing the benefits and costs of identifying those at high risk of developing T2DM for entry into a diabetes prevention program using the PreDx(tm) Diabetes Risk Score (DRS), a multi-marker test for 5-yr risk of developing T2DM. Use of the DRS is predicted to decrease the number needed to treat to prevent a case of T2DM, to be cost-effective at 10 years ($17,745/QALY), and cost saving by 15 yrs in contrast to using impaired fasting glucose for risk assessment which does not result in cost savings even at 20 yrs. Analysis indicates that the cost-effectiveness of a diabetes prevention program can be improved by identifying patients at highest risk for T2DM using the DRS.