Predictive Analysis of Phase III Clinical Trials
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*Richard M. Simon, National Cancer Institute 

Keywords: Predictive analysis, biomarkers, genomics, clinical trials

New paradigms for the design and analysis of oncology clinical trials of molecularly targeted agents are needed. We will cover the targeted “enrichment” design in which a test result is used as an eligibility criterion and the “stratified designs” in which the test is used as part of the primary analysis plan. We will also describe a flexible design for evaluating multiple candidate predictive biomarkers and the recently published cross-validated adaptive signature design for combining in one clinical trial the development and internal validation of a predictive classifier utilizing any type of candidate variables. We will present a framework for the analysis of clinical trials that incorporates both hypothesis testing and predictive modeling but requires that models be justified based on internally validated predictive accuracy.