St. James Ballroom
Crime in the Wake of Hurricane María: A Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Crime Patterns in Puerto Rico Before and After a Natural Disaster (303916)
Istoni da Luz Sant’Ana, University of Puerto Rico, Medical Sciences Campus
*Lorena Belise Hernandez, University of Puerto Rico Medical Sciences Campus
Keywords: Spatio-temporal models, Epidemiology, Public Health, Crime, Natural Disaster
On September 20th, 2017, Hurricane María, a category 4 storm, plowed through the island of Puerto Rico destroying foliage, cell towers, and power lines and bringing 20 inches of rain. Outbreaks of communicable diseases, population displacements, food shortages, disruptions to the power and water supply, and the interruption of health services were all direct consequences of the disaster, while the media also highlighted changing crime patterns, specifically an increase in homicide rates. Given that crime and fear of crime are causes of ill public health, this study through the use of space-time analysis, seeks to assess the impact of Hurricane Maria in the geographical distribution of crime in Puerto Rico. Using monthly crime reports from the Police Department we will perform the analysis using Bayesian spatio-temporal models with the inclusion of hierarchical structures. They will allow us to assess the relationship among our outcome variables and predictors in several levels and interactions. For the temporal component, we will compare the fit and complexity of the models through the parametric and nonparametric dynamic trends.