CSP 2017 Online Program

Analysis of Bird Arrival Dates in Cayuga County (303440)

Keywords: statistical collaboration, climate change,

This poster will examine date of first arrival for a number of bird species observed in Cayuga County in New York. Researchers at Le Moyne College gathered monthly average temperature data for 18 locations along the eastern seaboard of the United States with a goal of identifying how changes in the average monthly temperature for these locations have impacted the date of first arrival for over 70 bird species. There are a number of significant difficulties in this data set, including missing, skewed, and non-normal arrival dates. The weather data is also problematic, containing high correlations within a given year for each location as well as high correlations between locations, especially those that are geographically close. In addition, the entire data set suffers from probable serial correlation. This poster will present one possible analysis of this rich data set, which seeks to be both statistically rigorous while also maintaining a simplicity of interpretation needed for the intended audience of ornithologists. The resulting analysis utilizes the techniques of principle component analysis, de-trending methods, and generalized linear models to identify the regions with the greatest impact on bird migration.